Our methodology
Every prediction starts from a Dixon-Coles double Poisson model fitted on eight seasons of match results across Europe's five major leagues, their second tiers and continental competitions, weighted by exponential time decay (half-life 365 days). An Elo ratings layer and a recent-form adjustment refine the expected goals for each fixture, and a low-score correlation correction (ρ) sharpens the most common scorelines.
We back-test strictly out of sample: the model never sees the matches it is scored on. Headline metrics — top-pick accuracy and Brier score — are printed on every match page.
What we are not
ScoreLens is a data journalism project. We do not accept advertising from gambling operators, we never publish betting tips, and our outputs are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not advice of any kind.
Editorial team
Contact
Editorial: scorelens@icloud.com · Data corrections: scorelens@icloud.com · Business: scorelens@icloud.com